Halden & Rowe · Finance · FX
£160k of landed-cost drag in Ireland recoverable by extending hedge cover.
GBP/EUR has held at 1.13 for six weeks against a plan rate of 1.17. Extending H2 cover from 40% to 70% on the Irish tranche closes the gap.
Value
What acting is worth.
Sized against comparable historical actions. Estimates are honest — the methodology is stated so the number can be argued with.
Estimated value
Confidence · Emerging
£160K
landed-cost drag, H2 · half-year
Methodology
Unhedged inbound value × the rate gap, applied to the H2 open-to-buy book at current mix.
Cost of doing nothing
Every additional week at current cover adds ~£8k of landed-cost drag to H2 and narrows the option to hedge cleanly before the September buy.
Why now
Why Ana has flagged this.
The reasoning behind the identification, in one paragraph. Every opportunity earns its place on the pipeline.
The move has cleared the treasury policy trigger. A partial extension preserves optionality if the rate reverts while removing the majority of the drag.
Evidence
What Ana is reading.
The signals behind the opportunity. Five to six lines, each drawn from the trading data available this morning.
Plan rate
GBP/EUR 1.17
Six-week spot
1.13
Hedge cover
40% of H2
Policy trigger
fired 24 Jun
Irish inbound share
38% of H2
Decision Score
66 /100
Composite of commercial value, urgency, confidence, strategic weight, and risk.
Recommended action
What Ana would do.
One clear next step to realise the value — and the cost of not taking it.
Extend cover to 70% at spot on the Irish inbound tranche this week; hold GBP tranche at policy.
Owner · David Ashworth,
Related decisions
Prompts that would move this.
Open prompts linked to this opportunity. Accepting them advances the pipeline directly.
Decision
Close the loop.
Accept to add this opportunity to the active pipeline. Assign to route the work. Dismiss to file the reasoning for later review.
Close the loop
Accept to record the intent and begin measurement. Dismiss to file the reasoning. Assign to route the decision to someone else on the team.