Halden & Rowe · Customer · Loyalty
£210k of incremental gross profit in a 92k lapsed silver-tier cohort.
April's control cell lifted 60-day repeat purchase 4.2×. Rolling the same mailer to the full cohort with a 10% holdout is a low-risk win.
Value
What acting is worth.
Sized against comparable historical actions. Estimates are honest — the methodology is stated so the number can be argued with.
Estimated value
Confidence · Established
£210K
incremental gross profit · next 90 days
Methodology
Observed 60-day repeat lift applied to the eligible 92k population at April's average order value, discounted 30% for mailer fatigue at scale.
Cost of doing nothing
The eligible cohort continues to decay at ~1.4 points of repeat rate per month, roughly £22k of monthly gross profit forgone.
Why now
Why Ana has flagged this.
The reasoning behind the identification, in one paragraph. Every opportunity earns its place on the pipeline.
The cohort has 9–15 months of purchase history, no observed cannibalisation of gold-tier spend, and CRM capacity is already available in week 29. The template is approved.
Evidence
What Ana is reading.
The signals behind the opportunity. Five to six lines, each drawn from the trading data available this morning.
Control cell size
8,000 members
Repeat-purchase lift
3.1% → 13.1%
60-day window
Gold-tier cannibalisation
none observed
Eligible population
92,000
CRM capacity
available week 29
Decision Score
86 /100
Composite of commercial value, urgency, confidence, strategic weight, and risk.
Recommended action
What Ana would do.
One clear next step to realise the value — and the cost of not taking it.
Schedule the mailer for week 29 across the full 92k cohort with a 10% holdout for measurement.
Owner · Aoife Callaghan,
Related decisions
Prompts that would move this.
Open prompts linked to this opportunity. Accepting them advances the pipeline directly.
Decision
Close the loop.
Accept to add this opportunity to the active pipeline. Assign to route the work. Dismiss to file the reasoning for later review.
Close the loop
Accept to record the intent and begin measurement. Dismiss to file the reasoning. Assign to route the decision to someone else on the team.