Halden & Rowe · Merch · Menswear
Menswear size curve on core chinos is drifting one size up.
34W stockouts and 30W markdowns are running in parallel; a size-curve reset is overdue.
Reading
What Ana sees this morning.
What happened
Over the last eight weeks, 34W has stocked out on 41% of days while 30W discount depth has widened to 32% to move volume.
Why it matters
The customer base has aged into a broader fit; the size curve has not been re-cut since spring 2024. The pattern is consistent across four of the six top chino styles.
Evidence
What Ana is reading.
The signals behind the prompt. Every line is drawn from the trading data available to Ana this morning.
34W stockout days
41%
last 8 weeks
30W discount depth
32%
vs 18% target
Affected styles
4 of 6
Curve last re-cut
Spring 2024
Estimated impact · next two buys
£68Kannualised margin recovery
How Ana sized it · Recovered full-price 34W revenue plus avoided markdown on 30W, applied to the next two buy cycles at current mix.
Recommended action
What Ana would do.
One clear next step, and the alternatives Ana considered before landing on it.
Re-cut the size curve on the four affected chino styles at the next buy meeting and hold the change for one cycle.
Why · A single-cycle change is reversible and the data supports it on four of six styles. Waiting a further cycle costs a full replenishment window.
Alternatives Ana considered
- 1.Split-test the new curve on two of the four styles for one cycle before rolling wider.
- 2.Hold the curve, increase 34W depth only, and re-measure after the autumn drop.
Decision
Close the loop.
Accepting records the intent and starts measurement against the estimated impact. Dismissing files the reasoning so the same prompt does not re-surface without new evidence.
Close the loop
Accept to record the intent and begin measurement. Dismiss to file the reasoning. Assign to route the decision to someone else on the team.
Context
Metrics in play.
- Stockouts
- Markdown rate
- Sell-through