Halden & Rowe · Omnichannel · Baskets
Stores with click-and-collect above 22% adoption also carry a 14% larger in-store basket.
Click-and-collect is not a channel-shift story at Halden & Rowe. It is bringing digital customers into stores in a state that predisposes them to a bigger basket, and we are not currently designing for that arrival.
Observation
The pattern.
What Ana has read in the trading data — described in the language a senior analyst would use with the CEO.
Across the estate, stores with click-and-collect adoption above 22% carry a 14% larger in-store average basket than the estate average, controlled for catchment. The larger basket is not driven by the collected order itself — attach-on-collection accounts for only 3.2% of the lift — but by non-collection shoppers who visit alongside collectors on high-collection days. Cork and Dublin, which have run collection concierge trials since April, show a further 4-point lift on top of that.
Evidence
What Ana is reading.
Five to six pieces of supporting evidence. Each line is a signal, its measurement, and — where useful — a caveat.
In-store basket lift
+14% at ≥22% collection adoption
Catchment-controlled, trailing 12 weeks
Attach-on-collection contribution
3.2% of the lift
So most of the effect is not the collector
Non-collector basket on collection days
+8% versus non-collection days
Same store, same weekdays
Concierge trial effect
+4 points on top of the base lift
Cork and Dublin only, six weeks in
Adoption threshold
The effect appears at 22% and plateaus at 34%
Not a linear relationship
Estate coverage
9 of 41 stores currently above the 22% threshold
So the programme has room to compound
Why this matters
What changes if leadership takes this on board.
The business consequence, framed for a board conversation rather than a metric review.
The current omnichannel narrative treats click-and-collect as convenience, and prices the operational cost against the collection order. The pattern says click-and-collect is a footfall generator with its own commercial physics — the collected order is the ticket price, not the revenue. That reframes the Cork and Dublin concierge programme from cost-neutral to margin-accretive, and answers a live question about UK rollout sequencing.
Commercial framing
The order of magnitude.
An honest sizing of the pattern, with the methodology stated so the number can be argued with.
Order of magnitude
£1.1M
annualised basket uplift from crossing the 22% threshold estate-wide · next 12 months
How Ana arrived at this number
14% basket lift × trailing footfall on the 32 stores currently below 22%, net of programme cost at Cork/Dublin ratios.
Counter-evidence
The reasons the pattern might not generalise.
The caveats Ana would raise before an executive commits an Insight to a decision. Included by design — an Insight is only useful when its limits are known.
Selection effect
The catchment control corrects most, but not all, of this
High-adoption stores skew toward city-centre catchments
Concierge cost model
Rolling the programme without ratio discipline may dilute the effect
The 4-point Cork/Dublin lift assumes current staffing ratios
Linked across the platform
Where this Insight already touches your operating rhythm.
Missions the Insight informs, Opportunities and Prompts it reframes, and Decisions that were shaped by the same evidence.
Missions informed
Opportunities reframed
Prompts touched
Decisions shaped by the same evidence
Ana's commentary
How Ana would present this in the room.
This is the Insight I would put in front of the omnichannel steering group before any further collection investment is scoped. The economics of the programme change when the collected order is understood as the ticket price rather than the product.
Recommended monitoring
What Ana will keep watching.
The signals whose movement would either confirm the pattern is holding or tell us it has stopped.
- 01
Collection adoption by store, monthly — surface stores crossing 22% and 34% thresholds.
- 02
Non-collector basket size on high-collection days versus low, by store cluster.
- 03
Concierge ratio-to-lift on Cork and Dublin — the marginal collection matters more than the cumulative one.
Insights inform decisions. When you are ready to act, the Prompts and Opportunities linked above are the surfaces to move to.
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